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  2. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic led to a significant global economic downturn. Current projections indi-cate that the COVID-19 Pandemic Recession (herein-after “Pandemic Recession”) will involve a 6.2 per cent decline in global per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP per capita), making it the most severe recession

    • Introduction
    • International Policy Spillovers
    • Labour Market Recoveries and Balance Sheets
    • Managing Expectations to Tame Inflation
    • Conclusion

    Good afternoon, and thank you for inviting me to present this year’s Distinguished Lecture in Economics. I’m honoured to be the ninth lecturer to take this stage. I would especially like to thank Professor Francisco Gonzales for thinking of me for today’s talk. Francisco and I have known each other for almost 20 years and have discussed many econom...

    Let’s start by noting that Canada has a small open economy, accounting for less than 1.5% of global gross domestic product. We are integrated with, and dependent on, global trade partners. So what happens elsewhere has significant impacts on the Canadian economy. This situation isn’t unique to Canada. Most countries are small in this sense. Accordi...

    Next, I’d like to discuss how the labour market has recovered from the pandemic. I’ll also talk about the role that balance sheets have played in making that recovery stronger than recoveries following previous downturns. The left-hand panel of Chart 1shows how unusual the recovery phase of the pandemic has been relative to historical experience. D...

    While the previous two topics come with the benefit of hindsight, my final topic is something we’re still squarely in the middle of—the ongoing battle to bring inflation back to our 2% target. Since we introduced inflation targeting in 1991, the Bank has been largely successful at keeping inflation low, stable and predictable. Because of this, Cana...

    It’s time for me to conclude. The COVID-19 pandemic has certainly brought its fair share of challenges to Canadian households, businesses and policy-makers. While experience from past crises has played an important role in guiding our decisions, we truly have much more to learn. We at the Bank will continue to listen to Canadians, analyze the situa...

  3. Jun 15, 2020 · Current forecasts suggest that the coronavirus (COVID-19) global recession will be the deepest since World War II, with the largest fraction of economies experiencing declines in per capita output since 1870.

  4. Mar 24, 2021 · This article highlights changes in the pace of the economic recovery as tighter COVID-19 containment measures came into effect in late 2020 and early 2021. It provides an integrated analysis of recent changes in output, household spending, business investment, and international trade.

  5. Nov 12, 2020 · How severe is the COVID-19 recession across the globe? An analysis compares GDP growth forecasts for 2020 with historical growth rates for 155 countries.

  6. The recession’s trough occurred in April of that year, but as of May 2020, the Canadian economy began recovering. According to an August 2021 report released by the Business Cycle Council, the COVID-19 recession is “the shortest and deepest recession since the Great Depression that began in 1929.”

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