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Mar 17, 2021 · The Covid-induced demand shock and a shifting momentum towards investment in clean energy are set to slow the expansion of the world’s oil production capacity over our six-year forecast period. At the same time, the historic collapse in demand in 2020 resulted in a record 9 mb/d spare production capacity cushion that would be enough to keep global markets comfortable at least for the next ...
- Oil Market Report - November 2021 – Analysis - IEA
The IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) is one of the world's most...
- Oil Market Report - June 2021 – Analysis - IEA
The IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) is one of the world's most...
- Oil 2021 - Data product - IEA
Oil 2021. Includes 2019 data and forecasts through 2026 for...
- Oil Market Report - November 2021 – Analysis - IEA
- Canada’s Energy Transition
- Low-Carbon Electricity
- Wind and Solar
- Diverse Electricity Grids
- Crude Oil Production
- Natural Gas Production
- Fossil Fuel Demand
1. In the Evolving Policies Scenario, combustion of fossil fuels whose emissions are not captured falls 62% from 2021 to 2050, while use of low and non-emitting energy sources increases. While this...
In the Evolving Policies Scenario, Canadians reduce their energy consumption and adopt lower carbon sources (Figure ES.2). Total primary energy use falls 21% from 2021 to 2050 as energy efficiency improves. Low and non-emitting sources–including renewables, nuclear, and fossil fuels with carbon-capture and storage (CCS)Definition *grow to make up the strong majority of energy use. Unabated fossil fuel combustion (fossil fuel combustion without CCS) falls 19% from current levels by 2030, 45% b...
2. Canadians use more electricity, from increasingly low-carbon sources. Despite total energy use declining, electricity demand grows 44% from 2021 to 2050 in the Evolving Policies Scenario, much o...
Compared to the past two decades when electricity use grew very slowly, electricity demand grows quickly over the projection period in the Evolving Policies Scenario. This increase is driven by increased electrification of the energy system. Total electricity demand increases by 44% from 2021 to 2050, or by about 245 terawatt hours (TWh) (Figure ES.4). Half of this increase is driven by increased electrification in the industrial, residential, and commercial sectors. The other half comes from...
3. Wind, solar, and battery storage dominate electric capacity additions in all six net-zero electricity scenarios, making up between 82-85% of added capacity. With rising levels of wind and solar,...
The net-zero electricity scenarios each have a unique set of assumptions that examine many factors including technology, policies, level of electrification, and infrastructure. Figure ES.6 shows the net capacity additions for all six scenarios from 2019 to 2050. Consistent across all scenarios are large additions of wind and solar capacity, ranging from 100 gigawatts (GW) to 150 GW. These technologies are increasingly adopted due to their assumed low future costs in all scenarios. With large...
4. The net-zero electricity scenarios suggest that Canadian power systems will continue to be very distinct across the country, even in a low-carbon future. In each net-zero electricity scenario, t...
Figure ES.7 shows the generation mix for each province in the main net-zero electricity scenario. In British Columbia (B.C.), Manitoba, Quebec, and Newfoundland and Labrador, electricity generation continues to be primarily hydropower. Nuclear power remains limited to Ontario and New Brunswick and represents about 41% and 24%, respectively, of those provinces’ electricity supply in 2050. Natural gas-fired electricity generation remains a relatively important share, about 15%, of the electrici...
5. In the Evolving Policies Scenario, crude oil production grows much more slowly than in the past decade, rising 16% to a peak of 5.8 MMb/d in 2032. Afterwards, production declines slowly to 2050....
Canadian crude oilDefinition *production recovered to pre-pandemic levels by late 2020, after steep reductions in the spring of 2020. In both scenarios, production increases in the near term, but long-term trends differ significantly based on scenario assumptions, such as future price levels and domestic climate policy. In the Evolving Policies Scenario, Canadian production growth slows over the next decade peaking at 5.8 million barrels per day (MMb/d) in 2032, up from 5.0 MMb/d in 2021 (Fig...
6. Investment in natural gas production is spurred by assumed liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports in both scenarios. In the Evolving Policies Scenario, nearly 40% of Canadian natural gas production...
In the Evolving Policies Scenario, natural gas production remains near current levels of approximately 15.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) through much of the next two decades. We assume that LNGDefinition * exports grow over that period, starting with 1.8 Bcf/d by 2026 and reaching 4.9 Bcf/d by 2039 in the Evolving Policies Scenario. The additional investment in production to feed these LNG exports sustains overall production levels. Without LNG, production would otherwise decline given...
7. As Canada’s energy system decarbonizes in the Evolving Policies Scenario, we use less fossil fuels. Coal becomes a negligible part of the energy mix. Use of oil-derived fuels declines, especiall...
In the Evolving Policies Scenario, total Canadian fossil fuel use declines over 40% from 2021 to 2050. However, projections differ across the various fossil fuels. Canadian demand for natural gas has seen relatively strong growth over the last decade, driven by increased use in the oil sands and power generation as coal was phased out. In the Evolving Policies Scenario, gas demand grows over the next two years, as Alberta electricity producers aim to no longer use coal for electricity generat...
- GDP Growth Rebounds Following a Steep Decline in 2020. Description. Description: This chart illustrates the short-term macroeconomic impact of COVID-19 through real GDP and GDP growth trends from 2018 to 2025.
- Economic Indicators, Evolving and Current Policies Scenarios (2019-2050) Description. Description: This chart shows average annual growth rates from 2019 to 2050 of several economic indicators for both the Evolving Policies and Current Policies scenarios.
- End-use Demand Declines in All Sectors in the Evolving Policies Scenario.
- End-use Energy Consumption Peaks in 2019 and Declines over the Long Term in the Evolving Policies Scenario. Figure R.3 Description.
Nov 16, 2021 · The IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) is one of the world's most authoritative and timely sources of data, forecasts and analysis on the global oil market – including detailed statistics and commentary on oil supply, demand, inventories, prices and refining activity, as well as oil trade for IEA and selected non-IEA countries. Published November 2021.
- Global oil demand is set to return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2022, rising 5.4 mb/d in 2021 and a further 3.1 mb/d next year. The OECD accounts for 1.3 mb/d of 2022 growth while non-OECD countries contribute 1.8 mb/d.
- World oil supply is expected to grow at a faster rate in 2022, with the US driving gains of 1.6 mb/d from producers outside the OPEC+ alliance. That leaves room for OPEC+ to boost crude oil production by 1.4 mb/d above its July 2021-March 2022 target to meet demand growth.
- Global refinery throughput in 2021 is expected to recover half of the 7.4 mb/d fall in 2020, lagging behind demand growth for refined products as surplus inventories are drawn down.
- OECD industry stocks held relatively steady in April, at 2 926 mb, but fell 1.6 mb below the pre-Covid 2015-19 average for the first time in more than a year.
Mar 17, 2021 · Oil 2021. Includes 2019 data and forecasts through 2026 for world oil supply and demand by region, global oil demand by region and for major economies, world oil production (OPEC data through 2020 only), world refinery capacity additions, world ethanol and biodisel broduction, and selected upstream and refinery project start-ups.
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Sep 28, 2021 · Oil is expected to retain the largest share of the energy mix throughout the outlook period, accounting for just over a 28% share in 2045. All major fuel types witness growth, with the exception of coal. Global oil demand is forecast to reach 108.2 mb/d by 2045, from a low of 90.6 mb/d witnessed in 2020.
