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  1. Housing Starts in Canada is expected to be 220.00 Thousand units by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the Canada Housing Starts is projected to trend around 210.00 Thousand units in 2025 and 200.00 Thousand units in 2026, according to our econometric models.

  2. The trend measure is a 6-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of total housing starts for all areas in Canada. Actual year-to-date housing starts between January and October 2024 are up 12% in Montréal from the same period last year, showing some recovery from historically low new home construction in 2023.

  3. 4 days ago · The trend measure is a six-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of total housing starts for all areas in Canada. The total monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada increased 8% in October (240,761 units) compared to September (223,391 units), according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

    • Forecasting Economic Insights and Housing Trends in 2024 and Beyond
    • We Expect A Gradual Rebound After A Weak 2024
    • Housing Starts Decline in 2024 with Partial Rebound Projected For 2025 – 2026
    • Sales and Prices Will Rise in The Coming Years
    • Rental Demand Will Continue to Outpace Supply
    • Alternative Scenarios Address Elevated Levels of Uncertainty

    Interest rates increases that started in early 2022 to combat inflation resulted in weaker economic growth. This, in turn affected the housing market. Higher mortgage rates made things more difficult for potential homebuyers, leading to less homeownership demand and weaker house price growth. Higher interest rates made it challenging for builders a...

    We anticipate weak growth in gross domestic product in 2024 with economic momentum gradually increasing throughout 2025 – 2026. Consumers were a significant driver of post-pandemic economic recovery, but their spending capacity in 2024 will be constrained by high price levels and interest rates. Moreover, Canadians who financed homes during the pan...

    We anticipate housing starts will decline in 2024, continuing the decline from the record high levels of 2021. Interest rate increases led rapidly to declining starts of smaller structures, particularly single-detached starts. We anticipate a decline in apartment starts in 2024, following their record-high levels in 2023. Purpose-built rental start...

    Demand for homes will push prices up throughout the projection horizon. By 2025, prices could reach the peak level recorded in early 2022 and surpass it in the following year. Affordability will therefore be a growing concern. We anticipate a rebound in MLS® sales and prices from 2024 to 2026, fueled by declining mortgage rates alongside stronger g...

    Despite some recovery in homeownership demand, many households will struggle to afford homes in 2024 – 2026, leading to increased demand for rentals. Strong population growth will further increase rental housing demand because newcomers tend to rent after arriving in Canada. We anticipate an increase in purpose-built rental completions over the for...

    To address significant economic uncertainty, we present 2 alternative scenarios and their housing market implications. Relative to our baseline scenario, the pessimistic scenario anticipates: 1. recession in 2024 and a more modest recovery in 2025 – 2026 2. decreased business confidence resulting in reduced investments 3. persistent inflation keepi...

  4. 3 days ago · In Toronto, actual year-to-date housing starts were down 21 per cent from 2023. CMHC said the six-month moving average of the annual rate of housing starts was flat in October at 243,522 units.

  5. 4 days ago · Housing starts increase in October. Canadian housing starts came in at 241k annualized units in October, representing an 8% month-on-month (m/m) increase from September. The six-month moving average of starts was flat at 244k units. October's gain was concentrated in the multi-family sector, with urban starts up 7% m/m to 176k units.

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  7. housing starts have shown different trends across markets and types of construction. Figure 1: In 2023, apartments were the only dwelling type to see an increase in starts. The sum total of housing starts in Canada’s 6 largest CMAs * * Inclusive of all housing tenures (i.e., freehold, condominium, rental and co-op). Source: CMHC

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