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Aug 15, 2024 · And now that enough data are available on the new matchup, we can relaunch our forecast model (with a few tweaks) for the Trump-Harris election. It, too, shows that Ms Harris has moved ahead. It ...
Aug 15, 2024 · Our model believes she would be the narrow favourite if the election were held today, with a 61% chance of winning. But history cautions against relying too heavily on polls at this stage.
Aug 15, 2024 · According to our polling model, Harris still trails Trump in the electoral college tally if the election were held today and every state votes as their polling average currently demonstrates.
Aug 28, 2024 · We simplified our model and made it more responsive to polling. How 538's Harris-Trump forecast differs from its Biden-Trump forecast. On Thursday, Aug. 22, Vice President Kamala Harris officially ...
- G. Elliott Morris
1 day ago · Latest updates. For the first time since 538 published our presidential election forecast for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, Trump has taken the lead (if a very small one) over Harris. As of 3 p.m. Eastern on Oct. 18, our model gives Trump a 52-in-100 chance of winning the majority of Electoral College votes.
- G. Elliott Morris
Aug 23, 2024 · From 75 days out — around when we relaunched our 2024 forecast — to Election Day, the expected change in margin is closer to 6 points. And by mid-October, there are about 3 points of change ...
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How does the polling model work?
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How can we predict the national popular vote on Election Day?
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Why do we use polling averages?
The first step in our model is to generate a prediction for the national popular vote on election day. We use two main sources of information: national polls and “fundamentals”, the term in ...
